HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL VERIFICATION EVALUATION
PI and organization: J. Maksymczuk & M. Mittermaier(UK MetOffice)
Co-Is: R. Crocker, C. Pequignet, A. Ryan (UK MetOffice)
Abstract: The proposal considers CMEMS forecast products applicable to regional domains, exploiting spatial methods and ensemble techniques to determine the levels of forecast accuracy and skill in high resolution ocean models. It aims to provide a probabilistic framework addressing priority R&D crosscutting activity identified in the Service Evolution Strategy.
The project has two objectives:
A. Understand the accuracy of CMEMS products at specific observing locations using neighbourhood methods and ensemble techniques;
B. Understand the skill of CMEMS products in forecasting events or features of interest inspace and time.
Objective A will be useful for model developers to understand the basic biases and skill of oceanforecasts at a given location.
Objective B will be useful to CMEMS customers and downstream users. It uses an object-based method called MODE (Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation) and MODE-TD (time domain) to evaluate the evolution of events in both forecast and observation fields. From evaluations of the overlapping domains an improved methodology for assessing higherresolution ocean models will be delivered, which will better inform users on the quality of CMEMSregional forecast products. The methodology will allow for intercomparison between deterministic and probabilistic forecasts in an equitable and consistent way.